Baranyai: Obeying autocrat in advance a dangerous game

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A lot has happened since historian Timothy Snyder published his concise handbook, On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century. The tiny book exploded in 2017. Today it’s more relevant than ever. Among the lessons Snyder draws from our fraught history with authoritarianism, the most important is: Do not obey in advance.

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So far, we’re doing a terrible job.

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When wealthy U.S. newspaper owners decided not to endorse a presidential candidate, they were obeying in advance – avoiding the ire of a grudge-holding nominee, in case he returned to power – thus making it more likely he would.

Seeking to appease an authoritarian by anticipating what he might want, and offering it before he asks, merely conditions us for more and greater concessions, Snyder warns. U.S. senators who have pledged to support dangerously unqualified cabinet picks, long before confirmation hearings, are simply laying bare their obsequence.

Appallingly, we’re doing the same thing in Canada.

A conga line of anticipatory obedience greeted the president-elect’s threat of a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian imports, which he threatened as retaliation against the “Invasion” of fentanyl and “illegal aliens.” Ontario Premier Doug Ford was first in line with a preemptive sacrifice, proposing to cut Mexico out of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith promptly lined up behind him.

The premiers’ clunky attempts to curry favour only show the once- and future president how easily he can push us around. More on point was Mexico’s former chief free trade negotiator Kenneth Smith Ramos, who told CBC’s Power and Politics, killing the trilateral deal would just play into the hands of a leader whose consistent approach to his trading partners is “dividing and conquer.”

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Meanwhile, federally, Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre made up a new podium sign with the toadying slogan “fix the broken border.” His new rhetorical target, “people who lie to come into our country” (while claiming to love “real” refugees), echoes the exaggerations and deflections of the president-elect. Such eagerness to obey in advance rather takes the air out of his criticism the prime minister returned from dinner at Mar-a-Lago without winning any concessions.

Plans for the visit, proposed by Trudeau, were hatched quietly behind the scenes. The leaders’ dinner conversation touched on trade, border security and shared concern over fentanyl, along with a joke about Canada becoming the “fifty-first state.” Ha, ha.

Even less amusingly, on Nov. 29 – the same day Trudeau and Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc quietly flew to Florida – Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) announced an immediate “pause” on the private sponsorship of refugees. Claims already submitted will progress through the queue; however, no new sponsorship applications by community groups or groups of five will be accepted until after Dec. 31, 2025.

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Of course, this could be a coincidence. IRCC did not cite a change in American leadership as a reason for the change. Rather, it referred to the backlog of applications from private sponsors, which, not surprisingly, exceed the shrinking targets set out in Canada’s immigration levels plan.

Still, one wonders why it had to happen so abruptly, extinguishing hope for vulnerable refugees, along with groups of Canadians tirelessly pursuing legal channels to help them to safety. IRCC could have tapered the flow of applications, or given private sponsors a 48-hour window to submit paperwork near completion (as it has done in the past) before the new rules took effect. Instead, the pause was declared effective as of midnight the day before.

Another factor in the decision, IRCC noted, was “stakeholder feedback on potential application intake controls.” It could be unrelated, but it sure sounds perilously close to obeying in advance.

write.robin@baranyai.ca

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