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Armed with revised data, a new projection suggests Oxford County’s population will nearly double in less than 40 years. An updated assessment by Mississauga-based economic consulting firm Watson and Associates Ltd. alongside Dillon Consulting, of London, reports Oxford County is growing at a faster pace than initially suggested in a 2020 forecast study, a report says. A representative from Watson and Associates presented the firm’s findings at Wednesday’s council meeting. Here are some things to know about the initial findings from the ongoing growth analysis study.
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OXFORD COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS
The latest figures in the report, presented by Jamie Cook, indicate Oxford County’s population, employment and household numbers will grow substantially by 2061. The figures suggest the county’s population will surge from 126,700 in 2021 to 223,600 by 2061. The report projects the region to add 43,600 jobs in the same timeframe, with “just under half” in the industrial sector such as manufacturing, logistics and construction, Cook said. The number of new homes in the county is expected to increase by 42,000 units based on an annual average of 1,050 new houses, the report says.
MUNICIPALITIES GREATEST AFFECTED
Although all eight of Oxford County municipalities – including Blandford-Blenheim, East-Zorra Tavistock, Norwich Township, South-West Oxford and Zorra Township – would experience population surges, Woodstock, Tillsonburg and Ingersoll would account for the lion’s share of the growth, Cook said. Between 2021 and 2061, Woodstock’s population is expected to grow from 48,700 to 90,300, while Tillsonburg’s population is forecast to increase from 18,800 to 39,300 and Ingersoll would balloon from 14,300 to 22,600 people.
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WHO’S MOVING TO OXFORD COUNTY?
“Intraprovincial migration,” people moving from other places in Ontario to Oxford County, is seen as a key factor driving population growth, “a trend to continue, to a large extent, over the next 30 to 40 years,” Cook said. Between 2015 and 2021, 24 per cent of the people moving to Oxford County came from Waterloo, 20 per cent came from the Greater Toronto Area and 11 per cent were from Middlesex County and London, the report said. The largest demographic relocating to Oxford County was between 20 to 44 years old, Cook said. Less affordable housing in the GTA and increased remote and hybrid employment options following the COVID-19 pandemic are factors in attracting people to the region, he said.
POLITICAL CONCERNS
The pace of projected growth raised concerns for Oxford County politicians. Warden Marcus Ryan said Oxford County already is facing consequences due to the region’s soaring population including homelessness, lack of mental health or addiction support, housing attainability, lack of primary medical care and lack of adequate school spaces. He also was concerned about an existing housing shortage when, in five years, the population is projected to grow by another 30,000 people. Coun. Bernia Martin raised concerns about long-term land needs, noting the number of boundary adjustments Oxford County already has made in the last 25 years to accommodate its growth. She also expressed concern about the impacts of diminished farmland and increased traffic because of an increased population.
NEXT STEPS
The report is still underway, and the next phases of the study include assessing Oxford County’s long-term land needs. The firm will work on a draft report and aims to have a final study completed for the county by April 2025.
The Local Journalism Initiative is funded by the Government of Canada
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