Thames Valley enrolment woes will cost board millions: Trustee

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A Thames Valley trustee took senior staff to task over inaccurate projections of student enrolment this fall, a miscalculation that could push the board’s $7.6-million deficit deeper in the red.

Cathy Lynd, superintendent of business and treasurer of the Thames Valley District school board, told trustees at a board committee meeting on Tuesday that projections of new students expected to enrol at the board’s 160 schools this fall were over-estimated by 430 students at the elementary level and 355 students at the high school level, leaving the board with a surplus of 32 full-time teachers.

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“Enrolment projections included a conservative increase in enrolment based on housing projections and trends, unfortunately there has been a continued slowdown in construction due to higher interest rates,” Lynd said. “There is opportunity to address secondary staffing in second semester however there is no opportunity to adjust elementary staffing at this time.”

Total enrolment figures were not shared at the meeting, but in the board’s 2024-25 budget approved in the June, staff forecast enrolment at the elementary level would decrease by more than 400 pupils in September and increase at the high school level by about 90 students. Total enrolment was projected to be 84,112 students.

The Thames Valley board is undergoing an operational audit by Education Ministry as part of the fallout of a three-day Toronto retreat for 18 senior administrators in August that cost more than $38,000 and led to paid leaves of absences for education director Mark Fisher and associate director Linda Nicholls.

London trustee Marianne Larsen said she was “perplexed” over the miscalculation “that ultimately is costing our board a couple of million dollars.

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“I seem to recall hearing very clearly last spring that our projected enrolment figures were conservative,” she said. “Clearly they weren’t conservative enough.

“How can we ensure this doesn’t happen again because the previous year it happened as well, that’s two years in a row?”

Larsen also asked Lynd if there was “any pressure” put on staff to exaggerate enrolment figures.

Lynd denied there was pressure put on staff and said the projections were their “best estimate at the time.

“We did believe it was a conservative projection,” she said. “We reduced it significantly . . . we thought we were actually going to be in a position where we would over-enrolled come September.”

Manager of planning Ben Puzanov said in the future the board will forecast enrolment on a ”school-by-school basis.

“We will be making sure we’re drilling down into the yields for new development at each school,” he said.

The extra teachers and lower number of students will directly impact the board’s current deficit position by increasing salary costs and reducing grant revenue from the province.

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The board’s $18-million deficit was slashed by $11 million in June through cuts that included 58 elementary and 24 high school teaching positions, along with 17 early childhood educator jobs and four positions in speech and psychological service.

Last week the board paused a plan to eliminate 36 classes at elementary schools across its system due to its flawed forecast after an emergency meeting with a local union.

“They over-anticipated the number of students they would have; enrolment numbers are down,” said Craig Smith, president of the Thames Valley district of the Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario (ETFO), who suggested some students may be enrolling in the London District Catholic school board.

John Bernans, a local leader with the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation, said he has not been informed there is a surplus of high school teachers but has been told the “over-allocation of staff will  be dealt with second semester.”

Bernans said there are four secondary classes that have about 50 students.

“We do know that the board needs to allocate some additional staff to address large classes,” he said. “We expect that at least eight classes need to be added to split very large classes.”

Bernans said the large class sizes are the result of the “slow starving of education by the Ford government.

“Since they were elected in 2018, they have reduced funding by $1,500 per student when inflation is considered,” he said.  “Thames Valley has been mitigating these cuts by accessing reserves.”

HRivers@postmedia.com

@HeatheratLFP

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