Trumped: What to know about Ontario’s looming snap election

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Ontario Premier Doug Ford is sending voters to the polls 15 months early, with a snap election he says is needed to deal with the threat posed to Ontario’s economy by U.S. President Donald Trump and his avowed tariffs on Canadian exports. Key things to know ahead of Wednesday’s expected election call:

BLAMING TRUMP  

Even before Trump took office this month, Ford — with two majority Progressive Conservative governments under his belt — appeared to be itching for an early election. Speculation about an election before the next scheduled one, in June 2026, ran rampant last fall as Ford ruled out a late 2024 vote but refused to take 2025 off the table.  Then came Trump’s election in November and his inauguration in January, with his threat to slap 25-per-cent tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. Such a move could menace up to 500,000 jobs in Ontario’s export-driven economy, officials estimate. “Make no mistake about it, he’s coming for us,” the premier has warned. Ford, who has become something of a Captain Canada in recent weeks, appearing widely in American media to defend Canadian interests amid the Trump threat, now insists he needs a “clear mandate” to deal with four years of Trump’s second presidency and the damaging fallout it could have on Ontario. 

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CRITICS SEE CYNICISM

Critics contend Ford doesn’t need to call an early election, since he has a majority government and as premier already has the job of defending Ontario’s interests. “While our province faces a grave threat with half a million jobs at risk, Doug Ford sees an opportunity to fight for one job — his own,” New Democrat leader Marit Stiles,  the opposition leader at Queen’s Park, said Friday. “He thinks he can con Ontarians with an early election to escape his record — but we won’t let him.”

Wednesday’s election-call will come nearly two weeks after Ontario starting mailing out $200 cheques to virtually every man, woman and child in the province, a roughly $3-billion mass mail-out of money that Ford promised last fall to help Ontarians cope with higher costs including from the federal Liberal carbon tax. Opponents have categorized the move as an attempt to buy voters with their own money.

Ford’s PCs have a commanding majority in the Ontario legislature, holding about two-thirds of its seats. “It does seem opportunistic. Like many people, I suspect, I’m skeptical of the rationale of needing a new mandate,” said Matt Farrell, a political science instructor at Fanshawe College in London. “What more of a mandate does he need? He has a 50-seat lead in the legislature now.” 

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WHAT’S NEXT?

Coming off a “super-caucus” strategy meeting with PC candidates Saturday, Ford will visit Ontario’s lieutenant governor on Wednesday to ask that the legislature be dissolved and the election writs issued, one for each riding in the province. That will trigger a 29-day campaign, with the election held Feb. 27 — one month after Trump has hinted his avowed tariffs could take effect, and 10 days before the federal Liberals choose a new leader for their fragile minority government to replace the departing Justin Trudeau as prime minister. A federal election is widely expected to follow soon after, with either the Liberal government falling sometime after the prorogued Parliament resumes March 24 or the new prime minister pulling the plug and sending voters to the polls.  

HISTORY ON THE LINE

Ford is gunning for a third straight majority under his watch, something no Ontario premier has pulled off since 1959. Liberal premier Dalton McGuinty came oh-so close in 2011, finishing the election that year one seat shy of three straight majorities. Between them, John Robarts and Bill Davis managed three consecutive PC majorities ending in 1971. But for the last majority hat trick under one premier, you have to go back to Leslie Frost who led his PCs to victory in 1951, ’55 and ’59.  

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THE MAGIC NUMBERS

Ford’s PCs hold 79 seats in the 124-seat legislature, the opposition NDP 28 and the Liberals nine. The Green Party has two seats and six members sit as independents.  A party needs to win 63 seats for a simple majority, but more is better since the speaker of the legislature usually comes from the ruling party, reducing its voting strength by one.

THE COST

Another important number to consider? The actual cost of sending Ontarians to the polls. The province’s last general election in 2022 cost taxpayers $145.3 million, but the tab is expected to be higher this time factoring in increased costs and the run-up in inflation since then.

THE ISSUES

Ford is trying to frame the election as a referendum on which leader and party is best suited to deal with Trump and the billions of dollars the U.S. president’s avowed tariffs could cost Ontario.  But with two terms in government under Ford’s belt, watch for the other parties to zero in on government baggage ranging from homelessness and the affordability crisis many Ontarians are feeling, to the 2.5 million residents of the province with no family doctor. Another issue that could haunt the government is a criminal investigation by the RCMP into a controversial plan to remove land for new housing from the protected Greenbelt near Toronto, a land swap the Tories moved to reverse following a public and political uproar.

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Heading into the election, a Leger poll conducted for Postmedia and published last week suggested affordability concerns are the top issue, with 28 per cent of respondents ranking the cost of living as the most important issue in their community.  That was far ahead of the No. 2 issue, health care, at 12 per cent, and the economy, which was a top priority for 11 per cent. Five per cent of survey respondents ranked U.S. relations, including Trump tariffs, as the most important issue. 

AREN’T ELECTION DATES FIXED?

Yes and no. Ontario has a fixed-date election law, requiring one to be held every four years, but that doesn’t stop the lieutenant governor from dissolving the legislature at the request of the premier. Under the law, Ontario’s next election date would have been June 4, 2026.  

THE RISK

The last time an Ontario premier with a majority called an early election, it backfired badly. Liberal premier David Peterson, high in the polls three years into a majority, called an election in 1990 with economic storm clouds on the horizon. What looked to be a summer sleeper for the Liberals quickly turned into a nightmare. Beset by single-issue protest groups and suspicion the Liberals were trying to bag another victory before tough times hit, the party lost the election — and Peterson his London seat — to Bob Rae’s New Democrats, who battled a brutal recession that followed.  

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There’s always a risk voters could punish Ford for the early election, returning his government in a weakened position, said Laura Stephenson, chair of the political science department at Western University.  “A recent example is the redo federal election of 2021, where Trudeau sent Canadians to the polls and the outcome was almost identical. I don’t think that is what he was expecting,” she said. “There’s a possibility that Ford ends up with less support than what the polls are currently saying, but even that is still going to be pretty strong.” 

THE REWARD

While there’s always a risk in ending an otherwise stable majority, Farrell said the potential payoff for Ford outweighs the dangers.  Calling an election now means Ford can catch the Liberals, under leader Bonnie Crombie, at a time when they’re still rebuilding from severe election defeats in 2018 and 2022, Farrell said. “The new Liberal leader has not really been defined yet for voters,” he said. “It gives the PCs a chance to define the Liberal leader while being in a position of strength as an incumbent government.”  

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This election will be the first as party leader for both Crombie, who took the Liberal helm in December 2023, and for the NDP’s Stiles, who took over from Andrea Horwath in February 2023, 

Even though federal and provincial politics are separate, the recent turmoil for Trudeau’s Liberals could also affect how some voters see the Ontario Liberals, Farrell said. “The federal Liberal brand has taken a beating. Negative messages stick. When you hear negative stories federally, then you see Doug Ford’s negative ads about Bonnie Crombie, it just all registers as another negative Liberal story,” he said. 

An early election also helps Ford skirt some looming controversies and potential crises with potential to mire a 2026 election, Stephenson said.  A Feb. 27 election sends voters to the polls before the RCMP’s investigation into the Greenbelt scandal has concluded and before the full impact of Trump on Ontario’s economy becomes clear.  “He’s trying to get himself another term in office before things get to a point where people want something different,” she said. 

THE HORSE RACE

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Recent polling suggests Ford’s PCs enter the starting gate with the election theirs to lose. The latest Leger survey of voter intentions, conducted Jan. 17 to 19, found Ford’s PCs with the support of 46 per cent of respondents, to 22 per cent for Crombie’s Liberals. When asked who they’d vote for if an election was held today, 19 per cent of respondents said they’d vote for the NDP. The survey results are considered accurate to within 3.08 per cent, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

jbieman@postmedia.com

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