With the provincial election quickly approaching in June, a long time political science professor at the University of Toronto thinks the Ontario Conservatives are likely on the path towards winning another majority government.
Professor Emeritus Nelson Wiseman said the Doug Ford Conservatives have been leading in the polls recently and unless something changes, he expects them to win a narrow majority in the June 2, 2022 election.
That prediction follows the exit of several veteran members of Doug Ford’s team ahead of the election with Deputy Premier and Health Minister Christine Elliott saying she won’t be seeking re-election and three-time cabinet minister Rod Phillips announcing earlier this year that he would be stepping down from his roles — both as the minister of long-term care and as an MPP.
In total, there are 20 Conservative MPPs not running in the June election at this point either because they chose not to run again, were ejected from caucus, or left caucus. They include Christine Elliott, Rod Phillips, Jeff Yurek, Bill Walker, Rick Nicholls (ejected from caucus in August 2021 and is now a member of the Ontario Party), and Randy Hillier (removed from caucus in March 2019).
However, Wiseman said it’s not unusual that several MPPs and ministers have left the Doug Ford team lately because all parties want to know if the incumbents are running again and if not, give themselves sufficient time to organize nomination races. He said some just want to move on because they have been in politics too long or may have illness issues while others want to spend more time with family or move into the private sector.
Professor Wiseman said all good members let their parties know as soon as possible if they’re not running again to give them a better chance at running credible campaigns and keep the riding seat in the party, if they’re the incumbent.
Wiseman also noted that the poor handling of the pandemic by the Ford government shouldn’t hurt their chances of forming the next government because voters will have forgotten about the pandemic by the time the June vote rolls around.
“The public has a very short-term memory and by the beginning of June if the pandemic is not an issue, it’ll be old news,” said Wiseman, who believes the other provincial parties will switch spots with the Steven Del Duca Liberals forming the opposition and the NDP going back to third party status.
Wiseman’s analysis of the Ontario PCs trending towards a win in June is also shared by Tim Abray, a PhD candidate with the political science department at Queens University.
He agrees with Wiseman that resignations are not uncommon because politicians may want to do other things with their lives if they’ve been around politics for a long time. However, he said it’s worth paying attention to who is leaving and when they’re departing because it may signal trouble within the party and affect public perception.
“When someone like Christine Elliott steps forward and says I’m not running again regardless of what her reasons are, it’s going to have an impact on the way people perceive Ford, the way they perceive the cohesiveness of his team and it’s going to have an impact on people’s confidence levels in the government and the government’s reelection prospects,” Abray said.
Abray thinks the pandemic will have an impact on voting and will help or hurt campaigns depending on where the voter lives and if they agreed with COVID-19 lockdowns and mandates.
He noted Ford will also have to answer some tough questions such as why there was a licence plate sticker rebate before a childcare agreement.
Abray also said NDP Leader Andrea Horwath may be in trouble as the head of the provincial New Democrats if her party doesn’t perform well in this election.
“She’s been in that job a very long time and I think there’s only so many times you can go to the well without coming back with a bucket full of water that they’re going to let you keep doing it,” Abray said about Horwath.
Abray said the Liberals and the NDP have a shot at winning but only if they deliver clear bold messages, show some charisma, and not sit back waiting for the Conservatives to mess up.
Both politicos agree that inflation and the economy could also be a factor in the June election.
The official campaigning begins on May 4, 2022 when the writ is dropped.
