Commonly-cited Michigan pollsters you’ll see often include EPIC-MRA (ranked 2 out of 3 stars), Mitchell Research (ranked 2 out of 3 stars) and Glengariff Group (ranked 1.5 out of 3 stars).
Mitchell’s most recent presidential poll of Michigan voters, conducted in early June, showed a statistical tie between Biden and Trump.
Because of Michigan’s political importance as a swing state, national pollsters also often conduct surveys of Michigan voters. FiveThirtyEight’s top-ranked pollster, New York Times/Siena College, conducted a survey of likely Michigan voters in late April and early May. It showed Biden up one point among likely voters, which was within the margin of error.
Here are some polling variations to watch out for:
- Margin of error: The larger a poll’s margin of error is, the less accurate it is. Any poll with a margin of error more than plus or minus 5 percentage points should be viewed with skepticism, especially considering margins of error can in some cases be larger than reported due to nonresponses or other polling errors.
- Methodology: Are the polls being conducted online or over the phone? Are prospective voters being surveyed via robocall or with live participants? Is the poll weighted to adjust for the general population? All these factors and more can play a role in a poll’s overall accuracy.
- Who is taking the poll: Some groups of people are more likely to participate in surveys than others, including college graduates and older adults. In some cases, that discrepancy can’t be fixed by weighting the data, an issue that helped contribute to inaccuracies in Michigan polls leading up to the 2016 general election.
Want more information? Below are some places to find the latest polling and more ways to decipher whether polls are accurate.
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Presidential race in Michigan
U.S. Senate race in Michigan
Tips for reading polls
