The Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority has issued a flood outlook statement, as a quick rise in streamflow is expected, with the slight potential of ice jams.
Rain is expected to begin overnight with total amounts of 15-25 millimetres for the region.
Snow surveys conducted on February 15, 2022 measured between 40 and 65 mm of water equivalent in the snowpack. Much of the snow cover is expected to disappear over the next 24 hours. With frozen ground, a quick runoff is expected.
Major flooding is not anticipated but, should we receive rainfall amounts in the range of 25mm, levels in watercourses will exceed bank-full conditions, resulting in the flooding of traditional low-lying flood plain areas. Streamflows are forecasted to peak in the smaller streams tomorrow, and larger rivers through the day Friday. Flows will remain high through the weekend.
Depending on how quickly river levels rise, flows may be high enough to break up and move river ice. The risk of ice-jam-related flooding is low but present, most notably in the Lower Bayfield River and, to a lesser extent, the river-mouth areas of Port Franks and Grand Bend.
Residents are reminded to stay away from all watercourses. The extremely cold water, combined with slippery and unstable stream banks, has created hazardous conditions near all waterways. Any remaining ice in ponded watercourses should be considered unsafe.
The message will remain in effect until 12:00 p.m. on Sunday, February 20, 2022, unless local conditions warrant further updates. The Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will provide an update if required.
The Grand River Conservation Authority (GRCA) is issuing the following Flood Watch message for the entire Grand River watershed due to the anticipated runoff and potential for ice movement associated with the incoming weather system.
