Category: Research
The Assumptions That Broke: China, India, and the End of Fossil Growth Models
The idea that heavy freight would be the last redoubt of diesel has been repeated for decades, often with confidence and rarely with evidence. In December 2026, that idea finally collapsed. Battery electric heavy duty trucks crossed 50% of new sales in China, a segment that had long been treated … [continued]
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Chinese Vehicles Are Gaining Serious Traction in South Africa’s Overall Used Vehicle Market
AutoTrader’s latest pricing and mileage figures highlight a decisive shift in buyer behaviour as Chinese brands convert sceptics into confident second-hand shoppers. This shift could help accelerate the transition to electric vehicles in South Africa in the medium term, as Chinese brands have shown to be more aggressive when it … [continued]
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Imported Materials Are Manageable, Imported Energy Reprices Economies
Europe’s gas crisis in 2022 is often described as a supply shock driven by geopolitics, but that framing misses the core lesson. The crisis was not caused by import dependence in general, nor by shortages of industrial feedstocks. It was caused by reliance on an imported energy carrier that sat … [continued]
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Germany’s Hydrogen Strategy Delayed Electrification by Pulling the Workforce the Wrong Way
Germany’s hydrogen backbone with no customers and no suppliers has been examined from multiple angles in this series, starting with the pipeline from nowhere to nowhere itself and the energy and other demand flows that won’t materialize, then moving through Germany’s misguided analyses that led to it, the implications of … [continued]
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When Steel Outlives Strategy: The Climate Cost of Germany’s Hydrogen Pipeline
Germany’s 400 km hydrogen backbone segment is now pressurized, full of fossil hydrogen, and waiting. There are no meaningful suppliers connected to it and no contracted offtakers drawing molecules out. That fact alone makes it worth slowing down and doing the accounting carefully, because large infrastructure decisions do not become … [continued]
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