Tag: Market Research
Fossil Fuels Are 40% Of Freight Shipping Tonnage, But Half Its Fuel Use
Maritime fuel debates usually start with the wrong object. They look at today’s bunker fuel demand, line up replacement molecules, and ask whether ammonia, methanol, hydrogen, LNG, biofuels, or synthetic fuels can scale far enough to replace it. That sounds like a practical question, but it skips the larger one: … [continued]
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China’s First Build Is Ending, And The World Won’t Repeat It
One of the easiest ways to get long-range energy and materials demand wrong is to treat first-build infrastructure demand as a permanent condition. Countries build their first stock of housing, highways, ports, rail, power systems, water systems, industrial parks, and concrete-and-steel cities once. After that, the demand structure changes. The … [continued]
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2100 Transition Scenarios Need A Better Population Denominator
One of the easiest ways to get 2100 wrong is to carry the 20th-century population curve forward as if it still defines the future. The world went from about 2.5 billion people in 1950 to more than 8 billion today, and that expansion shaped modern assumptions about food, energy, cities, … [continued]
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Aviation Fuel Demand Doesn’t Collapse. Cheap Kerosene Growth Does.
Aviation is one of the harder transition sectors to model well because it invites two bad shortcuts. One is to assume that flying keeps growing as it did in the cheap-kerosene era, with a cleaner molecule somehow dropped into the same demand curve. The other is to assume that decarbonization … [continued]
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Carney’s Alberta Pipeline Deal Is Strategy, Not A Funded Pipeline
The new Alberta pipeline deal should be read as political strategy first and infrastructure second, if second at all. Prime Minister Mark Carney gets something real from it: a “Canada is open for business” signal, a trade-diversification pathway to point at, and a way to undercut opponents who want to … [continued]
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